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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However the current field is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still